“The Central-Thesis Explanation” Standard after United States v. Terriwanna Carmichael

1. Introduction

The Fourth Circuit’s unpublished decision in United States v. Terriwanna Carmichael, No. 24-4337 (4th Cir. Aug. 18, 2025), addresses the perennial tension between a defendant’s right to an individualized sentencing explanation and the district court’s discretion—particularly in the revocation context. Ms. Carmichael, convicted for her role in a drug-distribution conspiracy, was serving a term of supervised release when multiple violations prompted the district court to revoke supervision and impose a 16-month term of imprisonment—well above the 5- to 11-month range recommended by the Chapter Seven policy statements and higher than both parties had requested. On appeal she contended that the court (i) ignored several mitigating arguments and (ii) failed to justify adequately the upward variance.

Although unpublished, the opinion crystallises a doctrinal refinement that will be cited frequently: an aggregate or “central-thesis” explanation is sufficient so long as the record, viewed as a whole, shows that the sentencing court heard, understood, and rejected the defendant’s core mitigation narrative. The court therefore extends earlier precedents (Gaspar 2024; Powers 2022; Nance 2020) to the supervised-release revocation setting and clarifies that an upwardly variant revocation sentence need not parse every subsidiary data-point urged by the defendant.

2. Summary of the Judgment

The Fourth Circuit affirmed a 16-month revocation sentence for Ms. Carmichael.
Standard of review: whether the sentence is (a) within the statutory maximum and (b) not “plainly unreasonable.” The court reiterated that revocation review is more deferential than the reasonableness review applied to initial Guidelines sentences.
The panel concluded that:
- The district court did address the defendant’s principal mitigation themes.
- The court provided a reasoned explanation when departing upward, focusing on breach of trust, deterrence, public protection, and the defendant’s repeated refusals to comply absent the threat of incarceration.
- Any factual inaccuracies alleged on appeal were either waived by trial counsel or unsupported by the record.
Hence, the sentence was procedurally reasonable and not plainly unreasonable.

3. Analysis

3.1 Precedents Cited

The opinion leans heavily on a quartet of recent Fourth Circuit cases:

United States v. Patterson, 957 F.3d 426 (4th Cir. 2020) — established the “plainly unreasonable” two-step framework for revocation sentences.
United States v. Slappy, 872 F.3d 202 (4th Cir. 2017) — emphasised that courts must explain why an above-policy-statement sentence better serves the § 3553(a) factors.
United States v. Gaspar, 123 F.4th 178 (4th Cir. 2024) and United States v. Powers, 40 F.4th 129 (4th Cir. 2022) — held that addressing the defendant’s central thesis suffices; every sub-argument need not be separately catalogued.
United States v. Nance, 957 F.3d 204 (4th Cir. 2020) — allows appellate courts to look at the entire colloquy, not just the final sentencing pronouncement.

By synthesising these, Carmichael imports the central-thesis principle into the revocation sphere, solidifying a continuum across initial and post-conviction sentencing stages.

3.2 Legal Reasoning

Standard of Review. The panel reiterated that revocation sentences are reviewed for plain unreasonableness, a highly deferential standard surpassed only if (i) the sentence is procedurally or substantively unreasonable and (ii) the unreasonableness is plain.
Procedural Reasonableness. The district court must:
- Consider the non-binding Chapter Seven policy statements (USSG §§ 7B1.3, 7B1.4);
- Invoke the pertinent § 3553(a) factors (particularly deterrence, protection of the public, breach of trust, history and characteristics); and
- Provide enough explanation to permit appellate review.
The Fourth Circuit found those requirements met through the district judge’s repeated back-and-forth with counsel and with Ms. Carmichael.
Addressing Mitigation. Acknowledging Patterson’s low bar, the panel considered whether the sentencing transcript showed at least an implicit rejection of the defendant’s mitigating points. It concluded that:
- The district court explicitly confronted her claimed low IQ, limited role, and recent compliance.
- The remaining arguments (addiction, mental health, destabilising effect of prison) were implicitly rejected by the court’s broader finding that she did not care and would not comply absent incarceration.
Thus, the court fulfilled the Gaspar/Powers duty to engage the central thesis— here, that incarceration was unnecessary and counterproductive.
Substantive Reasonableness. The sentence sat far below the two-year statutory cap under 18 U.S.C. § 3583(e)(3). The panel deemed the degree of variance justified given the repeated, defiant violations and the prior leniency that failed to yield compliance.

3.3 Impact of the Decision

Although unpublished, Carmichael will almost certainly be cited for its doctrinal clarity. Anticipated ramifications include:

Sentencing Practice. District judges within the Fourth Circuit can rely on an aggregated explanation without fear of reversal, even when imposing significant upward variances in revocation cases.
Defense Strategy. Appellate counsel will need to frame mitigation around a single, coherent thesis. Splitting mitigation into numerous micro-arguments, hoping the court misses one and therefore errs, is now a less promising tactic.
Government Advocacy. Prosecutors can invoke Carmichael to argue that a sentencing judge’s holistic rejection of rehabilitation claims suffices, so long as the record contains some dialogue reflecting awareness.
Doctrinal Convergence. By cross-pollinating the Gaspar/Powers line with revocation jurisprudence, the Fourth Circuit moves toward a unified explanation standard for all federal sentencings.

4. Complex Concepts Simplified

Supervised Release: A post-incarceration period during which a defendant must obey court-imposed conditions. Violations may lead to revocation and additional imprisonment.
Chapter Seven Policy Statements: Advisory ranges (U.S. Sentencing Commission) suggesting the length of imprisonment upon revocation. They are not mandatory.
Upward Variance / Departure: A sentence above the advisory range. In revocation, the term “departure” is less formalised, but courts still explain why the higher sentence better serves the statutory goals.
Plainly Unreasonable: An appellate standard requiring clear error—more deferential than “unreasonable.” The appellant must show (1) error and (2) that the error is obvious.
Breach of Trust: A guiding principle for revocation sentencing: punishment should reflect the defendant’s violation of the court’s trust, rather than re-litigating the original crime.

5. Conclusion

United States v. Terriwanna Carmichael reinforces the Fourth Circuit’s trajectory toward pragmatic sentencing review. By endorsing the “central-thesis explanation” for substantial upward variances in supervised-release cases, the court balances two competing imperatives: ensuring meaningful appellate oversight while preserving the district court’s capacity to tailor sentences without drafting an encyclopedic opinion.

Practitioners should view the decision as both a warning and a roadmap: mitigation arguments must be coherent and thematically unified, and challenges on appeal must demonstrate that the sentencing court ignored the defendant’s core message, not merely that it failed to catalogue every factual detail. Absent such a showing, a revocation sentence—so long as it sits within statutory limits—will rarely be deemed “plainly unreasonable.”